Dominating My Fantasy League — Week 8
Am I Philadelphia Eagles fan all of a sudden?
I should start off by saying I’m not mad about how either of my quarterbacks played this week, but as I’ve spent the last 8 weeks intensively — okay maybe obsessively — tracking performance, I am starting to pick up on some things. I stuck with Rodgers and Herbert as my two quarterbacks, but I spent a lot of time understanding just who would be better to start. And here’s what I’ve learned in a quick nutshell — Rodgers is reliable, but Herbert is more interesting when it comes to fantasy. Apologies to my Green Bay fans, but when it comes to fantasy, Rodgers veteran status leaves him kind of dull in my line up.
Now that I’ve made what I consider a controversial opinion, why is it that Rodgers is a yawn and Herbert is the next coming — strictly fantasy speaking? Let’s break down some stats. Passing yards per game is an easy one to jump in to. On average, a quarterback has only thrown 172 yards per game. Rodgers throws an average of 276 yards per game where Herbert is averaging 308 yards. Now when I compare that with completion percentage, they’re completing around the same amount of their passes, ~66%. So what have I learned? Yes Herbert is throwing more yards, but he’s also able to go toe to toe in terms of accuracy with Rodgers. Herbert also moves a lot more than Rodgers — he averages 24 rushing yards per game compared to Rodgers’ mere 7.5 yards. You’d think just based on this knowledge I would go for Herbert in Week 8, but I didn’t (naturally). The quarterback is only one piece of the puzzle. What did the defense look like?
Rodgers was facing the Minnesota Vikings — cue Lizzo — and Herbert was facing Denver’s intimidating secondary. Looking at Passing Yards again, Minnesota had allowed nearly 300, more than what Rodgers was even averaging. Denver on the other hand only allows 230 yards, less than the average. Minnesota had also just traded their top pass rusher. Rodgers was going to have walk in the park for Week 8. And how did it turn out? Rodgers was reliable. He threw his average 291 yards and for 3 touchdowns. He beat his projected fantasy points ever so slightly and didn’t throw a single interception. Honestly without the final strip sack of the game, he would have been perfect. Now Herbert who I expected to struggle and make impulse decisions and hold the ball too long and you know, be a rookie. Herbert did have a some tough spots. He was sacked twice and threw 2 interceptions. But then he showed what the benefits of a young quarterback can be. He rushed for 21 yards and threw 43 times for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns. He outpaced his projected fantasy points and earned more than Rodgers, if only slightly.
Okay that’s a long way of saying, sometimes in data analysis you have to look beyond the number and what’s not being captured in the data. Another instance that I had to take in outside information was around my defense this week. The Philadelphia Eagles were going against the Cowboys and the Cowboys were starting their third string quarterback after Andy Dalton was ruled out with a concussion for a very ugly hit in Week 7. Enter Ben DiNucci, someone I know nothing about but assumed (correctly) under the pressure of Jerry Jones and Sunday Night Football, he would falter. And I reaped the rewards. The defense was able to get to DiNucci 4 times, recovered 2 fumbles — 1 for a touchdown, and only allowed 9 points. Then there was the gift of the safety from the Cowboys so they could try for an onside kick. I walked away with 20 points from that game.
Another pickup I made this week was Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski has been off to a slow start in his return to the NFL, but he’s now caught 3 touchdowns in as many games. When I look at Jonnu Smith who started out so strong but has seriously stalled in recent games, Gronkowski just makes sense to go with. He managed to catch all 4 of his targets for 41 yards. Gronkowski and Brady’s chemistry is still very much present. Going forward, Gronk will have some competition for Brady’s attention with Antonio Brown coming off suspension and Chris Godwin’s return from injury. I do think he’ll remain a top target for Brady. They’ve been in this thing too long together.
Okay okay okay okay. So what does like any of this mean? Player comparison to each other remains important. Defense comparison remains important. Layering in what’s going on that the numbers might not reveal is important. Everything is. I’m now exhausted. BUT I will press on. I like the idea of taking a risk with Herbert. Rodgers is a reliable, great quarterback, but I want someone who’s willing to run for the first down and take a chance. We’ll see how that does in Week 9.
As per usual, see here for my github.
